April 2006 Field Report - Southeast Michigan
An Inside Look at REALTOR® Issues and State Government
By: Tony Daunt – Southeast Michigan Field Director
2006: Election Preview, Pt. IV
Well, here we are. My election themed articles to date have discussed the statewide constitutional offices, the U.S. Senate race and the battle for majority control of the Michigan State Senate. Those who have read my previous articles will know that there is one more important branch of the government that has not been covered yet. As a result of the closely divided electorate and our state’s long history of ticket-splitting voters, the contests for the statewide offices mentioned above are almost always hard-fought and determined by a very narrow margin. Even though many of the individual races for a Michigan Senate seat may be won by a large percentage, the ultimate battle for majority control is much closer. The same can be said for the final portion of Lansing players that I will cover in this article: the Michigan House of Representatives. What follows is an overview of this year’s House races and the work that each party must to do retain (the GOP) or retake (the Democrats) the majority.
Michigan House of Representatives
Currently, the Republicans hold 58 seats out of 110. The Democrats are currently in possession of 49 seats. Well then, you might ask, who controls the other three seats? The simple answer is that nobody does. A more in depth answer goes something like this. The 29th, 56th and 69th districts are all vacant and were all held by Democrats until their vacancy. In the 29th and 69th, the individuals who held the seat, Clarence Phillips and Gretchen Whitmer respectively, each won election to another political office. Mr. Phillips is now the Mayor of Pontiac and Ms. Whitmer was recently sworn in as a State Senator for the 23rd district to replace former-Senator Virg Bernero, who is now serving as the Mayor of Lansing. In the 56th district, the previous officeholder, Herb Kehrl, passed away in November of last year after a battle with liver cancer.
For a variety of reasons, not the least of which is political calculation, Governor Granholm decided to hold the special elections to fill these three seats in conjunction with the regularly scheduled dates of August 8th for the primary and November 7th for the general. The only difference between the folks who will be elected to serve in those three seats and the other newly elected individuals (non-incumbents) is that they will be allowed to take office immediately, as opposed to waiting until January 1, 2007 to be sworn-in. As for the chances each party has of winning each of these three seats, the 29th and 69th can be considered “safe Dem” territory and the 56th could prove to be one of the marquee battles in 2006. The late Representative Kehrl won that race in 2004 by a mere 883 votes. His opponent, John Manor, has officially filed for the seat and really never ceased campaigning after losing to Mr. Kehrl in 2004. At the time of distribution of this article, the Democrats had not yet settled on a candidate for the 56th district.
Aside from the three seats slated for special elections, there are 22 races in the Michigan House of Representatives that will not feature an incumbent from either party. Of those 22 races, 21 of them are the result of term-limits and the last one a result of State Representative Shelly Taub’s (R-40th) decision to forgo her final term in the House to make a run for the 13th district Senate seat, currently held by Shirley Johnson, who is retiring due to term-limits. Based on pure numbers, it would appear as though the Republicans have a distinct advantage to gain an even larger majority simply because they only have to defend nine open seats and the Democrats must defend 13. However, thanks to a redistricting process that focuses more on ensuring safe seats for both parties than it does on ensuring geographic continuity, fewer than half of those races are expected to be even remotely close.
In the other 85 House seats that will feature an incumbent, 49 are held by Republicans and 36 are held by Democrats. Because of the inherent benefits in being an incumbent, like name recognition and the ability to raise large amounts of money, it is extremely rare for one to lose. Out of the 107 current House members, only three of them got there by defeating an incumbent. If the current political climate holds through Election Day, it is very likely that not a single incumbent will lose this year. There are, of course, a few competitive seats (about five for each side) and with the right candidate, either party is capable of picking off a seat here and there that they wouldn’t normally win.
So, where does all of this put the chances for a shift in majority control of the House of Representatives? At this point, I’d have to say, and many Lansing pundits agree, that the chances for a Democratic takeover of the House are less than 30 percent. The power of incumbency and makeup of the district boundaries simply makes this a terribly difficult task. If the roles were reversed and the Republicans were in the minority, it is likely that the same would hold true for them. Democrats will need huge coattails from either Governor Granholm or Senator Stabenow to pull some of their candidates to victory. When the dust settles on November 8th, the most likely scenario is for the Republicans to retain control of the House with a shift of 1-2 seats in either direction. But don’t hold me to it!
The Michigan Association of REALTORS® looks forward to working with our local associations to interview all of the appropriate candidates and make our recommendations based on their ability to be an effective voice for the real estate industry and private property rights here in Michigan.
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Granholm Vetoes SBT Elimination Bill
Citizens in Michigan have been bombarded lately with news and information about Michigan’s Single Business Tax (SBT) and the negative impact the burdensome tax has on Michigan’s economy. Recently, legislation to excel the repeal of the SBT in 2007 rather than currently in 2009, made its way to the Governor, where it came to a screeching halt in the form of a veto. House Bill 5743, sponsored by Representative Leon Drolet (R-Clinton Township), would have eliminated the single business tax in 2007, speeding up the elimination by 2 years. However, the bill failed to mention where replacement funds would be coming from, which the Governor cited was the ultimate reason for the veto.
Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson testified before the House Tax Policy committee recently and said if the bill is vetoed, which it was, he would start his own petition drive to get the SBT 2007 repeal on the November ballot for the voters to decide. The petition drive, which also does not identify a way to replace the revenue lost to the state, would need 254,206 signatures by May 31st. Although MAR believes that the single business tax does substantially more harm than good to the current economic state in Michigan, we are cautiously approaching the issue given possible revenue replacements, such as a tax on services. A service tax would devastate the real estate industry, and further the soft housing market in Michigan.
MAR is making its opposition to this potential service tax clear by informing legislators who will ultimately decide on where the revenue will come from.
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Meth Bills on the Move
Several bills further attacking the problem of meth labs are moving through the legislature. The biggest concern from the real estate perspective is clean-up standards and the ability to make a house once again habitable. Sen. Birkholz (R-Saugatuck) has introduced bills that would transfer rule-making authority from the DEQ to DCH and set a deadline of 6 months. In the original bill, there was a 1-year deadline. We had advocated for 3 months, and all parties settled on six. The bills are now in the House where we anticipate swift action.
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April 2006 Field Report
• An Inside Look at REALTOR® Issues and State Govenment
• Granholm Vetoes SBT Elimination Bill
• Meth Bills on the Move
Tony represents:
• Ann Arbor Area
• Dearborn
• Detroit
• CBOR
• Down River
• Grosse Pointe
• Lenawee County
• Livingston County
• MCAR
• Monroe County
• North Oakland County
• Western Wayne Oakland County
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