March 2006 Field Report - Southeast Michigan
An Inside Look at REALTOR® Issues and State Government
By: Tony Daunt – Southeast Michigan Field Director
2006: Election Preview, Pt. III
In the past two months, we have examined the races for Governor, US Senator, Secretary of State, and Attorney General. As expected, the statewide nature of these races creates more interest in the voting public and garners a much larger portion of the media coverage as the campaign season heats up. Often lost in the media frenzy of statewide races like the contests for governor or senator is the battle for control of the Michigan Legislature. And although these races are fought at the local level in cities and townships around the state, each win or loss is of vital importance to both of the major parties. The Republicans have a majority in both the Michigan House of Representatives and the Michigan Senate and know that they must fight a determined Democratic party to maintain their control. Below is a brief summary of the senate and what each party must do to retain or regain control of this upper chamber.
Michigan Senate
Of the 38 seats in the Michigan Senate, 22 of them are held by Republicans. The GOP has held a majority in the state senate since 1983 when recall efforts against two Democratic senators were successful thanks to their “yes” votes on a 38 percent increase in the state income tax. Republicans are looking to, at a minimum, maintain control of the 22 seats they currently hold and possibly wrest control from the Democrats in the 26th senate district, though that is much less likely with the announcement by State Representative David Robertson (R-51), perhaps the only candidate with the resources to mount such an uphill battle, that he would not challenge the incumbent, State Senator Deborah Cherry. On the other hand, Democrats are hoping for a big year and have a legitimate shot at narrowing the Republican majority by a seat or two, and could even regain control of the chamber if everything goes their way in November. The biggest factor working in favor of the Democrats is the shear number of open seats created by term limits. Although redistricting has served to drastically narrow the number of competitive seats each election cycle, there are 4 senate seats held by Republicans being vacated due to term limits and only 2 that are currently held by Democrats.
The Republican senators being term limited are Mike Goschka (R-32), Bev Hammerstrom (R-17), Shirley Johnson (R-13) and Majority Leader Ken Sikkema (R-28). Of those 4 seats, only the one held by Senator Sikkema can be considered a “safe” seat based on historical voting trends and the demographics of the district. The other three seats would “lean” Republican if the incumbents were running again but because they are open seats this year, you can expect them to be very competitive. Both parties have recruited strong candidates in all three races and can be expected to throw a significant amount of money and grassroots support into each of them.
The two Democratic senators leaving Lansing are Minority Leader Bob Emerson (D-27) and Burton Leland (D-5). Both seats considered “safe” due to their location in the Democratic strongholds of Flint and Detroit, respectively. Though it is a long shot, there are three to five Republican seats that feature an incumbent running for re-election that Democrats can be expected to be competitive in if they are able to recruit a heavyweight challenger with fundraising prowess and a strong, favorable image within the district. Included in those seats are the following senators: Tom George (R-20), Jud Gilbert (R-25), Tony Stamas (R-36), Laura Toy (R-6), and Gerald Van Woerkom (R-34). At the very least, Democrats can make it difficult for Republicans to compete in the open seats they must defend by forcing them to divert campaign dollars from the open seats into these incumbent’s races. If the Democrats can pick up just three seats, they will create a 19-19 tie in the upper chamber and create a situation where the Lieutenant Governor will hold the tie breaking vote, making the outcome of the gubernatorial race even more important than it already is.
This should be an exciting year for the Michigan Senate and as the candidate lists narrow and their ability to raise campaign cash becomes apparent, the number of competitive districts is likely to decrease. However, you can count on me to keep you informed as Election Day approaches.
Next month: the Michigan House of Representatives.
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Senate passes minimum wage increase
On Thursday, March 9, 2006, the Michigan Senate unanimously passed a bill to increase the state’s minimum wage in an attempt to circumvent a ballot initiative that would write an automatic, inflationary increase into the state constitution. Should Senate Bill 318 (SB 318), sponsored by Senator Ray Basham (D-Taylor), pass through the Michigan House and be signed into law by Governor Jennifer Granholm, Michigan workers would see an increase on their paychecks as early as October 1, 2006.
While Senator Basham’s bill initially called for an increase of $0.75 to $5.90 by July 1, 2005, $6.65 by January 1, 2006 and $7.15 by January 1, 2007, the current version would guarantee an even higher increase thanks to an amendment offered by Senate Majority Leader Ken Sikkema (R-Wyoming). The Sikkema amendment would raise the minimum wage to $6.95 by October 1, 2006, $7.15 by July 1, 2007 and $7.40 by July 1, 2008. Although Republicans are generally opposed to telling businesses what they are required to pay their employees, they quickly realized that voters were almost certain to create an even larger headache by writing the increase into the constitution and tying it to the rate of inflation.
The House is expected to go along with the Senate and Governor Granholm has indicated that she will sign the bill should it come across her desk. However, even if SB 318 becomes a Public Act, there is still the possibility that you will see the issue on your ballot this November. The group leading the petition drive, the Michigan Needs a Raise Coalition, has not decided if they will scrap their proposal or continue to move forward in light of this new development. It is expected that they will make their decision sometime within the next 2-3 weeks.
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Update on Michigan war on meth
Several bills to combat meth have been introduced in both the House and the Senate. Of particular interest to the MAR, SB 1113 would transfer rule making authority from the Department of Environmental Quality to the Department of Community Health. Additionally, language in the bill would require rules to be written within one year of passage. Currently, the DEQ has the authority and it has been over 2 years since the law was written without rules.
The MAR Meth Lab Task Force will be reviewing the legislation and making a recommendation to the Public Policy Committee. Several governments, including Kalamazoo County, have written rules, so one year may be too long for local governments to wait for state government action. Stay tuned…
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March 2006 Field Report
• An Inside Look at REALTOR® Issues and State Govenment
• Senate passes minimum wage increase
• Update on Michigan war on meth
Tony represents:
• Ann Arbor Area
• Dearborn
• Detroit
• CBOR
• Down River
• Grosse Pointe
• Lenawee County
• Livingston County
• MCAR
• Monroe County
• North Oakland County
• Western Wayne Oakland County
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